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OT: Not very optimistical view to the near future.
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Neil924  



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
Posts: 4225
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dpw928 wrote:
The last time I checked, less than 3% of our world had been explored for oil. Also, there are known oil deposits but the cost of recovery is too high at "current" crude oil prices. When the US petroleum prices get as high as the rest of the world, you will see a lot more oil exploration. drilling and production. As an example, one oil company in Tulsa closed 300 marginal producing wells in Oklahoma during the 1960's because it was costing more to pump than the federally mandated cap ($5.85 per barrel) on domestic oil. This happened all over the US oil patch states. Let the price of crude get high enough and you will see a lot more oil production. This boils down to simple Economics 101, supply and demand.

Dennis


I forgot about that. {High school is soo far away!} There are a few major oil reserves in upper Canada but with the ice and cold and perma frost etc... no one wants to put the effort in. Some day they will and when they do kids in schools will hear "we only have 15-20 years worth of oil left!"

But everyone will be so obese by then that no one will care as long as frosting still comes in super mega size with the easy to open lid.
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alxch1n15  



Joined: 26 Nov 2004
Posts: 261
Location: Madison, Wisconsin

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hmm..dpw928, you made a really good point. while we are worried about running out of oil, we still have a lot more to explore. however, i think that as we evolve...and i use evolve gently...our technologies, i think oil will be used less and less and recycling will allow for that. however, what would happen if we did run out of oil? not the total collapse of the world as we know it! riots in the street? i dont think so. vandalising and looting probably, but what is it going to matter? we wont have power so what good is a stolen television or a stolen computer going to be? we will deal when we get to that point, but its always a good idea that we prepare long before, which we are doing already. lets face it, oil is what controls this world right now, and its too bad that it is what controls this world. if things could be different, im sure they would be, but in order for things to better themselves, or for species to advance, and in this case, for us to develop better technology, we have to face a crisis. i mean, it took an ice age for society to develop! it took a supposed comet to kill of the dinosaurs so mamals could rule the earth!
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Last edited by alxch1n15 on Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:57 am; edited 1 time in total
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dpw928  



Joined: 02 Nov 2002
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Location: owasso, ok 74055

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, As mentioned earlier, oil is just decayed organics that we let mother nature process for us. I'm sure we have the technology to accomplish the same thing but it boils down to cost. At the rate we are going, that cost may not be too high in the near future. Neil, I hope when they tell your grandkids that they are running out of oil in 15-20 years, they can say "so what?". Maybe we ought to invest in ethanol and those experimental oiless engines.

Dennis
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Ozzie  



Joined: 12 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back in the 70's, we had an oil crisis.
Fuel will run out in 10 years we were told.
We know where there is oil but can't reach it we were also told.

We haven't run out and technology allowed us to reach the deeper oil deposits.

History repeating itself??
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Neil924  



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
Posts: 4225
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ozzie wrote:
Back in the 70's, we had an oil crisis.
Fuel will run out in 10 years we were told.
We know where there is oil but can't reach it we were also told.

We haven't run out and technology allowed us to reach the deeper oil deposits.

History repeating itself??


If you read the history of the world and keep an open mind, you will see that EVERYTHING is a pattern. And in the last 100 years that pattern has started to repeat itself more quickly. It's upto about 25 years now. Humans as a whole make the same mistakes our parents did and we are caring less and less about it. I find it quite scarey. I have pretty much made it a personal hobby to learn about humans, the way we think, grow and pretty much anything else we do as a collective. We are by far the most destructive force ever created and we destroy everthing else, even if we aren't close to it. And why? Because humans as a whole and a lot as individuals are extreamly lazy, to a point that it's killing a very large group of us. Parents can be soo lazy that they actually don't teach their children ANYTHING... NOTHING AT ALL! Some times parents like these only show effort with their child when they are defending them after somthing bad happened or someone question thier parenting skills.

If human parents can't and won't teach their children what it is to be human and a part of the world than we as a global society are absolutely doomed to kill ourselves and our planet. It comes down to nature. If one group of beings start running their genes into the shallow end of the pool, what will happen? We can't go back in time but we can make our bodies and minds weaker. And as our planet shows more massive signs of horrible change, we will be less likely to react or even see them. We will cover our eyes more often and for longer. The cycle/ pattern problem again.

Does anyone here know what the Ocean's Thermohaline Circulation is?


Don't be lazy! Read these 2 pargraphs!

30. The global conveyor belt thermohaline circulation is driven primarily by the formation and sinking of deep water (from around 1500m to the Antarctic bottom water overlying the bottom of the ocean) in the Norwegian Sea. This circulation is thought to be responsible for the large flow of upper ocean water from the tropical Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Archipelogo. The two counteracting forcings operating in the North Atlantic control the conveyor belt circulation: (1) the thermal forcing (high-latitude cooling and the low-latitude heating) which drives a polar southward flow; and (2) haline forcing (net high-latitude freshwater gain and low-latitude evaporation) which moves in the opposite direction. In today's Atlantic the thermal forcing dominates, hence, the flow of upper current from south to north.

When the strength of the haline forcing increases due to excess precipitation, runoff, or ice melt the conveyor belt will weaken or even shut down. The variability in the strength of the conveyor belt will lead to climate change in Europe and it could also influence in other areas of the global ocean. The North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere system appears to have natural cycles of many timescales in switching the conveyor belt. Periodic movement of excessive ice from the Arctic into the Greenland Sea appears to be responsible for the interdecadal variability of the conveyor belt. There is no evidence yet that the influx of interdecadal switching extends beyond the North Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/32.htm

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Climate_Change/Science/Conveyor.asp

http://www.essaydepot.com/essayme/2724/index.php



Who knows when the next ice age will come???

I bet within 10,000 years. But don't worry, humans will erase themselves from existence before the globe freezes again.

On a scale of 1 - 10 I give the last 30 years to present humans a rating of 1. Hey at least we didn't find a way to fry ourselves by using the sun... Oh, wait... yeah I give us a ZERO!


Last edited by Neil924 on Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Khal  



Joined: 26 Sep 2003
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Location: Sunny and lovely interior BC, Canada

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mate, get over yourself

What're you doin' about, Mr. Self-Proclaimed Salesman? Sellin' more shit?
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Neil924  



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A little fear mongering and a few facts can be a dangerous thing, eh?

Now some of what is in my post is true. In fact all of it is. But, it isn't the doom and gloom I made it out to be. Yes the ocean plays a part in the warming and cooling of the earth and yes it's possible for humans to muck it up but it hasn't shown a sign of slowing down yet. It has cooler periods as well as warmer periods and takes nearly 1000 years to complete a cycle, so no worries about a temp. range of .01 degrees.

And yes humans and other creatures show patterns, that's how we've evolved. So that can actually be a big positive in evolution but above, I stated it as a bad thing, in fact I stated that it could end life for all humans!

So long story short, don't believe everything you read or hear. If somthing interests you, go learn about it. And after that, if it worries you or makes you happy, go into it further.

This has been a test of "panic in the corridor" brought to you by the wonderful people at Green Peace, the United States Government, the Canadian Government and anyone else who does thing pretty much half assed.

Did you learn anything?
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Khal  



Joined: 26 Sep 2003
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Neil924 wrote:
A little fear mongering and a few facts can be a dangerous thing, eh?

Did you learn anything?


Yeah, everybody's better informed than you.
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Neil924  



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
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Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Khal wrote:
Neil924 wrote:
A little fear mongering and a few facts can be a dangerous thing, eh?

Did you learn anything?


Yeah, everybody's better informed than you.


Hahahahahaha!

I found it interesting when I learned about the ocean's current and how it moved, cooling, rising, heating etc... so I added it into the "pitch".
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Raceboy  



Joined: 01 Mar 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This article says that previous oil crisises were only economical kind, this one is not. It's not just one mans chime to get everybody frightened, i've read it from other places too.
Perhaps it's not SO serious as he implies, but hey, definitely something not to overlook.
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Viking  



Joined: 30 Jan 2003
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jkostka/courses/CH14.ppt
Look at the 6th page. There is huge amounts of this gas, which we can potentially use for energy. I recently read about it in a magazine as well, and the US/Canada has enough deposits to cover their need for energy for a long time. The only catch is that there is no economical way of extracting it. As the price of energy increase, more money will be invested in research. And sooner or later it will become economical and then exploited.

But one day, we will run out of fossil fuel, and we will not be able to grow enough plants to make organic fuels, and hydro power cannot solve it for the whole world. Hopefully, when that time comes we will have solved the process of fusion energy, and then our problem is solved for as long as humans will exist.

Many bright minds are working on this, so I don't see a need for panic now or in the future. Let them worry about this, and let us worry about how to keep out 924's alive, and in the future convert them to whatever fuel is available to run them.
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kaffine  



Joined: 13 Jun 2003
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Location: Las Vegas

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As for is crude oil still being made. Yes but no where near the rate that we are consuming it. Also we are mining peat moss that would eventually wind up as crude oil for fertilizer. Of course our landfills might turn into oil after a few million years.

Making crude oil using modern technology. That is what Thermal depolymerization is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
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skemcin  



Joined: 02 Sep 2003
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Location: Plainfield, IL

PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the world's governments need to get off their asses and stop letting the automobile and oil industry dictate legislation and get more involved in what is dubbed as the third industrial revolution - the hydrogen economy.

we as a world cannot afford NOT to move into a hydrogen economy. Hydrogen gas is the most abundant gas on earth and its by product is heat and water - DUH!

We need another mass cooperative mission, like "Lets Land a Man on the Moon" type of vision. Government, Commercial, and the Public need to get behind a cleaner more self-suffucient energy and make the switch!

As far as those statistics - they are massaged. We actually have enough untapped fuel to take us 200 years into the future. Of course, that will come with a cost - the cost to tap the resource and refine it. These statistics just show how we would run out if everything stayed the same.
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Last edited by skemcin on Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:25 am; edited 1 time in total
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MAD-924  



Joined: 05 Apr 2003
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow Neil, you're soooo smart. Just another person tired of your long winded, soap box, look at me preaching.
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Neil924  



Joined: 18 Mar 2003
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MAD-924 wrote:
Wow Neil, you're soooo smart. Just another person tired of your long winded, soap box, look at me preaching.


Did you read the posts after it? I just put together words like in the first link in this thread. You can take simple facts or just common knowledge and WHAM! fear and worry spread.
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